I love a good psychic. In fact, who needs to deal with the
hard realities of life when you can have someone predict the future for you?!
Well, apparently retail is getting in on the action, as Myron "Mike"
Ullman, CEO and chairman of J.C. Penney, recently took the liberty of
predicting the retail future--and a negative one at that.
While speaking to analysts (a perfectly good audience to
test your fortune-telling skills on) at the Lehman Brothers 11th Annual Retail
and Restaurant Conference in New York, Ullman made this prediction,
"We expect 10 to 20 companies to find it difficult to get through this
period.” Yep, you heard him right, he's predicting that roughly 10 to 20
companies will file bankruptcy during
the economic downturn. But, J.C. Penney will be spared, with Ullman noting
that the company has, "excellent financial flexibility."
How's that for a confidence-instilling speech? As if it wasn't bad
enough that retailers and consumers are plagued with negativity surrounding our
economy, now we've even got CEOs making gloomy predictions on this
bandwagon.
Wait, I thought retailers didn't like to predict the future,
especially a negative one? Recently, the New York Times reported that many retailers
were abandoning the forecasting model all together. Interestingly, J.C. Penney
was one of the companies (including Macy's and Starbucks, among others) to cease forecasting, citing
that it's too confusing for investors.
I, for one, agree. Let's stick to the
present moment and expect the best for the future. C'mon, summer is on the way,
and then we have the back to school season!
So, what do you think--are you sick of all the naysaying or
do you think Ullman is right on target with his predictions? Would
love to get your feedback on this one! Leave your comments here.
In the meantime, I'm going to get a tarot card reading...
--Heather Strang
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